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As the first full week of the month fets into full swing- we have a pretty quiet Monday with it being Labor day in the U.S- the only key release will be a speech from ECB President Lagarde, markets are quite torn on whether the ECB will raise rates again so this speech may provide some insight into the ECB’s thoughts before the next rate decision.
Inflation is the main talking point today with Euro-Zone inflation due out at 10am this morning. Yesterday Germany released their August Inflation figures, with a slight decline from 6.2% in July to 6.1% last month.
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We had a pretty interesting week on markets with the Jackson Hole Symposium being a non event with no real policy change announced, the FOMC maintained that they will hike rates again if they feel it is necessary, but this will be entirely data-driven.
From Monday-Thursday Sterling actually performed pretty well on the week, with Pound to Euro rate reaching 1.1730 and the Pound to Dollar rate hitting 1.28. Unfortunately, on Friday morning, weak UK retail sales showed a fall of -1.2% which brought Sterling down slightly which also dampened forecasts slightly.
Pound Sterling is still climbing against The EUR after yesterday’s positive inflation release. Inflation dropped from 7.9% down to 6.8% in the year to July, with the main contributors being a drop in prices for; Energy, Petrol & Diesel, Milk, Bread & Cheese. Keeping inflation relatively high at the moment are the price increases in Hotels & Air Travel. It now looks even more certain that The Bank of England will raise interest rates again next month by 25 basis points, with the peak rate now forecast to reach 6%.
After positive UK GDP data, the Pound traded a little higher on Friday after a relatively disappointing performance over the week- the data showed that the UK economy has in fact still grown a little through this current cost of living crisis- for those of you in the UK this probably came as no surprises as the shopping centres etc are still extremely busy here- which is good news for the UK.
